Taoiseach Kenny

Polls have Fine Gael doing well, so will Enda Kenny be Taoiseach?

These last five years could have been so different for Fine Gael. Back in 2002, they lost an unthinkable 21 seats, and party leader Michael Noonan had egg and pie, all over his face. In the Mayo constituency that year, Kenny finished behind both his running mates on first preferences; MEP Jim Higgins and Michael Ring.

Only after transfers did Kenny leapfrog Higgins, who would have himself been considered leadership material had he kept his seat. But he didn’t and after the dust settled Enda was left to nurse a severely concussed party back to health.

Initially his promises to “electrify the party” were scoffed at, but not many people were left laughing when he brought Fine Gael within a handful of council seats of Fianna Fail, and became the biggest party as regards MEP’s. Most of Kenny’s career since he became leader has been about confounding expectations. Upon taking over, he kept such a low profile that most people expected Pat Rabbitte to take over as opposition leader, however Kenny spent that time behind the scenes rebuilding the party’s confidence. There are people who I know in the party who talk as if Enda is the only man in it. Even at their Ard Fheis, where Gaeler pride was at saturation point, every member I talked to was besotted with the man. As far as most of them were concerned, he brought them back from the brink of extinction.

So, he passed the first test (rebuild the base) with distinction, he also passed the second (distinguish yourself as a party/opposition leader), and even the third (take the party through a successful election), but the fourth one is the one that’s going to be by far the most difficult: Proving to people outside the FG fold that he’s capable of leading the country.

So far, the answer seems to be no. Kenny’s personal approval ratings tend to stay static even while the party’s ratings skyrocket. Phrases like “I just can’t see him as Taoiseach” seem to follow him around all over, even as he barnstorms his way across the country in a very Bertie-esque manner. In many ways you can’t blame them: Bertie Ahern has been in charge for ten years, and whatever you think of his politics most people would consider him personable, a bit of a geezer if you will. No offence to Kenny, he ain’t that guy, nor should he try to be.

If Kenny wishes to be Taoiseach, he should first admit that he wouldn’t be the most commanding personality to ever assume the office. With the exception of Garret Fitzgerald, FG Taoisigh tend to be more stable, “trains on time” leaders than exuberant personalities anyway. Secondly, you can’t help but notice that they have, on paper at least, the makings of a great cabinet. When Fergus O’Dowd talked to me about affordable housing with corresponding facilities in communities, especially for young people, he sounded impressively on the ball. Same goes for Olwyn Enright when she talks about comprehensive sexual health education or provision for special needs, or Richard Bruton when he takes on Brian Cowen on everything under the sun.

For the Rainbow Coalition to work, it has to be portrayed as a sum-of-all-parts type coalition that could outperform the current cabinet, and not as a personality test between the main leaders. If that happens, we may just see Taoiseach Kenny in a few weeks time.

By: Paddy Duffy

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