Fianna Fail at the races

Can third time possibly be lucky?

Bertie Ahern’s recent announcement about holding an election on a Thursday proves he has the symptoms of a very nervous leader. The fact he hasn’t called a date yet is another example of a man who isn’t remotely sure if he’ll still be on the happy side of the Dáil in about a month’s time. In fairness, you can’t really blame him.

It’s been a rough end to a second term for our Bartholomew: A health service that’s looking more sickly each day, a promise-filled Ard Fheis speech that was soundly outflanked by Enda Kenny, more than a few ministers who seem hell bent on out-stupiding each other, a long list of poorly-planned initiatives that did nothing but haemorrhage money and, of course, that whole Ted Crilly-esque benefit dinner in Manchester.

But if there’s one thing we’ve come to learn about Bertie and Fianna Fáil, it is that they’re far too thick-skinned to let a few near national crises affect them. Bertie is a bit like that cop in Terminator 2 in this regard and even when he’s getting the tar kicked out of him by the opposition on an issue that would normally prompt resignation, he can always manage to emerge unscathed or even in better shape. The whip-around controversy proved that.

The party has recovered reasonably well in the polls since its’ disastrous local and European election campaign in 2004 but there is no doubt they will lose seats this time around, the only question is how many. If this election lines up as the Presidential style election that commentators seem to be expecting, it shouldn’t be too bad for them. Fianna Fáil have two main strengths: a large, rock solid base of supporters and Bertie’s Stalin-like personal approval ratings. Enda Kenny, who has an approval rating about 10% lower than the Taoiseach, just could not make the dent into FF’s seats to depose them.

On the other hand, if Fine Gael and Labour gel properly as a team and show off some of their candidates’ ministerial potential or some unforeseen government blunder is released between now and then, Fianna Fáil are in deep trouble. Pound for pound, a Fine Gael and Labour front bench would trump the current set of ministers; Mary Hanafin and Brian Lenihan are the few popular standouts amongst a cabinet of liabilities such as Dick Roche, Martin Cullen and Willie O’Dea.

Another quandary they have to deal with is, providing they limit the expected damage, who could be potential partners for Fianna Fail Mk III? A mixture of the PD’s and Independents probably won’t give them enough to work with and beyond that alternatives aren’t too forthcoming. The Greens are a possibility but not on Trevor Sargent’s watch and a Fianna Fáil/ Labour coalition isn’t likely to last past the honeymoon period. That leaves Sinn Féin and given the right circumstances, this is very, very likely indeed. Despite all their statements saying they wouldn’t go into government with Sinn Fein, don’t think for a minute that Fianna Fáil wouldn’t bite their hand off if the numbers added up.

All in all, a third term for the current government is not likely but a third term for Fianna Fail is not so outlandish. This election is already shaping up to be an election of change, the only question is: How much of a change?

By: Paddy Duffy

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